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                                                                        Eastern Africa
Harvesting of the 2008 main season cereal crops is underway or due to start soon in Somalia, Tanzania, Uganda and Kenya. In Ethiopia the
harvest of the secondary ‘belg” crop is in progress. Although the important March-May rains improved towards the end of the period,
cumulative totals remain below normal in large areas of Ethiopia, Somalia, parts of western Kenya and in the Karamoja region of Uganda.
Thus, crop prospects in these countries remain generally poor. Planting of the 2008 main coarse grain crops has started in Sudan.
In Eritrea,sowings are underway for the ‘Kiremti” cereal crops due for harvest from November. The vegetation Index (NDVI) is low in North Red
Sea region reflecting below-average rains during the first months of 2008. In the central highlands growing conditions are reported normal
following adequate rainfall. Reflecting generally favourable weather and a marginal increase in the area planted to sorghum, the main cereal
grown, the aggregate 2007 cereal production is estimated to have increased by some 60 000 tonnes to 462 000 tonnes. However, despite
significant increases in the last few years, domestic cereal production is inadequate to cover the requirements and large quantities of cereals
have to be imported. Food prices in the Asmara market have been on an upward trend since July 2007, with serious implications for a large
number of vulnerable people.
In Ethiopia, notwithstanding moderate rains in May, the cumulative total for the March to May season was below normal, resulting in drought
conditions across an extensive area of the country, including the secondary ‘belg” crop areas. As a result, the output from this crop, now being
harvested, is expected to be severely reduced compared to the bumper harvests of the last few years. Decreased water availability is reported in
several regions with Afar, Somali and the lowlands of Oromiya the most severely affected. By contrast, western Ethiopia has experienced
abundant and well distributed rains since the season started in late March. The May rains were beneficial for the growing of the early sown
main ‘meher” crop, the output of which, however, will largely depend on weather conditions until the harvest due from October.
In Kenya, below-average March to May rains in Northern Rift Valley and North-western provinces have further reduced water availability, which
was already inadequate as a result of a poor October-December 2007 season. Maize output in the key grain-producing districts in the North
Rift region like Trans-Nzoia, Uasin Gishu and Lugari is expected to be drastically reduced. In addition to the displacement of farmers and
irregular weather patterns, the factors behind the decline in production include rising fuel and agricultural inputs prices and high cost of
labour. Following adequate rains in the bimodal areas of South Rift and western Kenya, the maize crop is reported in good condition and a
few farmers in some of the early planted areas the South Rift Valley, have reported the harvesting of green/fresh maize suggesting that
harvesting in these areas could start timely in August. The Ministry of Agriculture has estimated the long rains production of maize this year at
2.16 million tonnes, about 20 percent lower than in 2007/08 and 15 percent below the recent average. In an effort to increase cereal
production the Government has initiated a number of projects which include diversification of crops, intervention in the input supply with
provision of fertilizers, seeds, tractors for hire and a credit facility for the farmers.
In Somalia, the main Gu cereal crop, due for harvest from next month, is largely anticipated to be a failure as a result of a late start and poor
performance of the rains in most parts of the country. Crops in many southern areas had already wilted and dried by the end of May and
although light rains in early June led to a replenishment of water resources, the y arrived too late to benefit the crop. Recent heavy rains have
caused some flooding in Mogadishu. Dry conditions have prevailed also in the central pastoral regions of Galagadud and Hiran as well as in
several pastoral areas of the north. Crop conditions are extremely poor in both sorghum and maize areas and the vegetation index of maize in
Lower Shabelle at this time of the year is the lowest recorded over the last ten years.
In Sudan, the output from the irrigated wheat crop harvested earlier in the year is estimated at 587 000 tonnes, above the 5-year average but
16 percent below the bumper 2007 crop. Planting of the 2008 coarse grain crops, mainly sorghum and millet has started. The availability of
agricultural inputs is reported as normal to above-normal. Rains from July to September will be crucial for the establishment and development
of the crops, the bulk of which are due for harvest from November.
In the United Republic of Tanzania, harvesting of the main coarse grain crops, mostly maize, will be completed next month. Reflecting normal
rains, the output is expected to be up from last year and above the 5-year average. Paddy production is likely to be marginally higher than last
year’s crop of 1.4 million tonnes. The good harvest is expected to meet national food requirements and result in a decline of wholesale cereal
prices as already reported from Mbeya District.
In Uganda, harvesting of the main coarse grain crops is underway. Normal rains in most of the country’s growing areas suggest normal crop
and livestock production. In contrast, below-normal rains in the Karamoja region will result in poor outputs for the second consecutive year.
Numbers of people requiring emergency assistance continue to increase in the subregion
In Somalia, the failure of the 2008 Gu crop, which follows two below-average seasons (Gu 2007 and Deyr 2007/08), has resulted in a critical
food supply position. The humanitarian situation is rapidly deteriorating due to a combination of increasing food prices, a significant
devaluation of the Somali Shilling, disruption of internal markets and internal trade, and mounting civil insecurity. Currently, 2.6 million people
are estimated to be in need of assistance ‘ about one-third of the total population - an increase of more than 40 percent since January 2008.
The number of internally-displaced people are estimated at 1.1 million. Population movement from the capital increased by 20 percent since
January 2008 bringing the number of people who have fled Mogadishu since February 2007 to a total of 860 000. According to the FSAU
(Food Security Analysis Unit) the humanitarian situation is likely to continue to deteriorate in the coming months and a total of 3.5 million
people, about half of the total population, could be in need of either livelihood support or humanitarian assistance by the end of the year.
In Ethiopia drought conditions are reported across an extensive area of the country, including those where the secondary ‘belg’ crop is
produced. Although this crop accounts for only a small portion of the total national cereal production, in Amhara and Tigray regions, where
the output is severely reduced, about one million people depend on this crop for about half of their annual food consumption. Recently, the
Government and humanitarian partners estimated a requirement of some 510 000 tonnes of cereals to meet emergency food assistance
needs for 4.6 million people until November 2008. This estimate of the number of people in need represents an increase of 2.6 million people
compared to the April 2008 estimate. Moreover, this figure could increase further as an additional 8 million people remain chronically food
insecure. Out of a total requirement of 598 000 tonnes, only about 130 000 tonnes, or 30 percent, are available or have been pledged. Thus,
to avoid a further worsening of the food supply position of the affected people, there is an immediate need for contributions to the food aid
pipeline.
WFP has announced that, due to funding shortfalls, it has been forced to reduce food assistance to tens of thousands beneficiaries in drought-
affected areas and that, without new contributions, may not be able to fully respond to the increasing food aid requirements resulting from
the drought. In an effort to reduce the impact of 20 percent inflation on poor people, the Government decided to cancel the value-added and
turnover taxes on food grains and flour - which constitute more than half of the country’s food consumption - as well as all types of tax
imposed on cooking oil, and surtax on soap. The Government has also set up measures which include provision of direct and indirect
subsidies, and has spent ETB 372 million (USD 38 million) to subsidise wheat and ETB 3.52 billion (USD 366 million) to subsidise fuel. The
current monthly distribution of 25 kg of wheat for low-income urban dwellers, introduced in March 2007, will be maintained as well as
distribution of edible oil and other products.
Relief assistance will be required by pastoral population and the urban poor in Djibouti as a result of decreasing food security reflecting
inadequate rains and increasing food prices. Direct and indirect resource transfers, including market subsidies and provision of food and water
are needed to support the rising number of food insecure households. Preventive health measures are also needed to avoid outbreaks of
waterborne diseases.
In Eritrea, current high food prices and inflation continue to affect a large number of vulnerable people while new and continuing regional
tension could lead to further massive displacement and increased humanitarian needs. Disease outbreaks including cholera and malaria
remain a concern as a result of the ongoing rainy season. This condition will be further aggravated by inadequate safe water sources and
sanitation facilities and other endemic diseases, such as yellow fever and meningitis.
Adequate rains in Kenya since the season begun in March, over most of the pastoralist areas, have improved the availability of pasture and
water, promoting livestock productivity and milk output. However, conflicts, high prices for cereals and other essential goods, animal diseases
like Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) currently widespread in northern areas, have minimized the extent to which pastoralists can benefit from
the rains, have undermined their recovery from drought, and increased their food insecurity. Overall the food security situation is likely to
deteriorate due to drought, food production losses due to animal and crop diseases, increasing prices for food and agricultural inputs, as well
as disruption of markets. More than 500 000 people affected by post-election violence, including 113 000 IDPs settled in 134 camps, as well
as about 230 000 IDPs in Mount Elgon districts will continue to require humanitarian and recovery assistance in coming months. A steady
influx of refugees from Somalia is reported in the north-eastern province.
Households in the eastern parts of southern Sudan are currently highly food insecure due to food shortages as a result of crop losses after last
year’s early and above-normal flooding. These shortages are compounded by the isolation from markets, due to inadequate or lack of roads,
and insecurity. Food supply position in Rubkina and Ruweng could deteriorate in the coming months due to an escalation of the conflict over
the border between northern and southern Sudan that started in December 2007. The estimated 50 000 people internally displaced, as a
result of the civil unrest in May in Abeyei, are expected to return to their homes in the next few weeks. In the north, displacement and loss of
livelihoods are expected to continue in Darfur where an additional 180 000 people have been displaced in the first five months of this year.
Limited humanitarian access due to security restrictions, overcrowding in camps, limited water resources and a poor cereal harvest, would likely
lead to increased hardship for the vulnerable people.
The food crisis in the north-eastern Karamoja district of Uganda is likely to continue. It is estimated that more than 700 000 people are food
insecure and in need of emergency food aid as a result of flood damage in 2007, prolonged insecurity, inadequate rains for the last three
years, falling livestock prices, and a severe attack of honeydew on sorghum. The Government has provided some farm implements and seeds
to farmers, but the population still needs food relief to bridge supplies up to the next harvest. Adequate food stocks and market supplies are
ensuring constant food security in other bimodal areas of the country.
Cereal prices still high although harvest season is in progress

In Eritrea, reflecting widespread increase on international markets, prices for food in Asmara have steadily increased since July 2007. The retail
price for wheat flour in May 2008, quoted at ENR 3 700 per 100 kg, was almost 9 percent higher than the previous month and more than
double the price prevailing in May 2007. Similarly, the retail maize price reached ERN 2 700 per 100 kg in May 2008, more than double the
July 2007 price. In Ethiopia, grain prices continued to increase in 2008 after weakening slightly at the end of 2007. The price of wheat in
Addis Ababa in April increased to USD 438 per tonne from USD 426 per tonne in March. Maize in the same market was quoted in April at
USD 324 per tonne compared to USD 160 per tonne a year earlier. With prevailing high prices, poor households are expected to find it more
difficult to secure access to adequate food supplies.
In Kenya, reflecting the sharply reduced maize crop in the key maize-producing districts in the North Rift region, the price of maize in the
Nairobi market - which fluctuated between USD 199 per tonne and USD 222 per tonne in the period May 2007 and January 2008 ‘ had
increased to USD 387 per tonne by May 2008. In Somalia, low cereal supplies, as a result of two consecutive poor harvests, a significant
increase in the prices of imported commodities and growing demand from IDPs, have resulted in further increases in food prices. Overall,
sorghum prices have increased in the Sorghum Belt by more than 60 percent since January 2008. In April, the highest sorghum prices were in
Beletweyne market (SOS 7 500 per kg) and Hudur (SOS 7 250 per kg). The lowest prices were reported in Bardera and Baidoa where sorghum
was quoted SOS 3 600 per kg and SOS 5 150 per kg, respectively. In Sudan, sorghum and millet prices in all major markets are stable at a high
level. This year, the seasonal downward trends in prices, which normally occur during the immediate post-harvest period, were less marked
than previous years. The wholesale price of sorghum in Khartoum, which fluctuated between SDG 40 and SDG 47 per 90 kg bag in the
period November 2007 and February 2008, had increased to SDG 82 per 90 kg bag by April. Wheat prices, at around SDG 100 per 90 kg
bag in the October to December period, reached SDG 140 per 90 kg bag in April.
In the United Republic of Tanzania, reflecting a government export ban on agricultural commodities, imports of large quantities of maize, and
favourable prospects for the maize crop now being harvested, wholesale prices in Dar-es-Salaam declined over the past months, the May price,
at USD 289 per tonne, was USD 46 below the peak reached in January. In Uganda, in spite of a normal crop forecast the price of maize had
risen to USD 370 per tonne in May, some USD 200 per tonne more than just four months earlier in January.
All Rights Reserved © Copyright AfriCommex 2008