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| Southern Africa Overall good 2008 cereal output in the subregion but mixed results at country level The subregion’s aggregate 2008 cereal production (including forecasts for small amounts of wheat from the secondary season currently underway in a few countries) is estimated at 27.3 million tonnes, up by some 17 percent from 2007, and the highest level since 2000 (see Table 5). This is primarily due to a bumper season in South Africa, where output of maize and other cereals recovered sharply from last year’s poor level. Outputs in Swaziland, Botswana and Mozambique also increased from last year’s mostly poor levels, while Zambia, Malawi, Angola and Zimbabwe gathered smaller crops than in 2007. Regarding maize, the main staple crop in the subregion, aggregate output is estimated at 20 million tonnes, 25 percent higher than last year’s less than satisfactory outcome. Excluding South Africa, the aggregate output of the remaining countries is down compared to last year, but above the 5-year average Planting of the 2008 wheat crop in South Africa, which accounts for about 90 percent of the subregion’s total wheat production, and other secondary season crop planting, has been carried out in May-June in southern and central growing areas. Early estimates put the area up by about 19 percent from the previous year, in response to the current high domestic and international prices. Import requirements for 2008/09 Based on the bumper crop in South Africa, FAO estimates a lower cereal import requirement for the subregion as a whole in the 2008/09 marketing year compared to 2007/08. However, excluding South Africa, the aggregate cereal import requirement of the other countries is expected to increase by 11 percent, while for maize, the increase is expected to be even more pronounced at over a third (Table 6 and Figures 11 and 12). As a result of the significant drop in per caput domestic cereal availability, combined with significant reduction in commercial import capacity due to the prevailing high food and fuel prices, demand on food aid is estimated to increase substantially in the subregion. Post-harvest cereal prices remain high Prices of the main cereals remain higher at the start of this new marketing year than at the same time last year due to strong international and regional demand (Figure 13). In South Africa, following a bumper harvest, the price of maize has weakened somewhat since the start of the season but remains well above the corresponding prices last year. For example, the May 2008 price of white maize (Randfontein spot) at ZAR 1 784 per tonne was 8 percent higher than a year earlier. In Mozambique, the maize price in June 2008 (Maputo wholesale) of MZN 8.57 (Mozambique Metical) per kilogramme was 57 percent higher than for the corresponding month in 2007. In Malawi, the retail maize price in Lilongwe has been rising since May 2007; the spike in the price in April 2008, seems to be the exaggerated reaction of the market due to the uncertain and conflicting early forecast of the current harvest. In Madagascar, the post-harvest rice price has started to go up in June, earlier than usual. Assessment of Current Food Security in Zimbabwe A joint FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission (CFSAM) was undertaken at the request of the Government of Zimbabwe from 29 April to 23 May 2008. The Mission estimated total domestic cereal availability for 2008/09 is at 840 000 tonnes, about 40 percent below last year’s domestic supply. National production of 2008 main season maize is estimated at 575 000 tonnes, some 28 percent lower than 2007 output. The 2007 harvest was itself already some 44 percent below 2006 production. The country needs about 2.1 million tonnes of cereals including 1.9 million tons for direct human consumption. Average agricultural production and productivity have declined over the last seven or eight years. Newly resettled farmers cultivate only about half of the total arable land allocated to them owing to shortages of draught power, fuel and low investment in infrastructure. Large-scale commercial farms produce less than one-tenth of the maize they produced in the 1990s. The productivity of the communal farms that used to produce the bulk of maize in the country has also decreased to one-fourth in about 10 years. According to the Mission, Zimbabwe’s cereal import requirement from April 2008 to March 2009 will be at 1.2 million tonnes, of which the staple food maize accounts for about one million tonnes. Total commercial cereal imports could reach 850 000 tonnes, leaving a shortfall of 380 000 tonnes. Required food assistance could amount to 395 000 tonnes of cereals from July 2008 to March 2009. The situation has been exacerbated this year by severe economic constraints, arising from hyperinflation and the continuing balance of payment crisis, the untimely delivery of seeds, shortages of fertilizer, unprofitable cereal prices, deteriorating infrastructure and a prolonged dry spell following excessive rains. There seems to be little incentive for farmers to produce beyond their subsistence needs, given the lack of alternative marketing channel and price controls with inflexible procurement prices in an environment of hyperinflation (see Figure 1). Prices of maize and of several other key commodities are controlled by GMB by setting the buying price for farmers and the selling price for millers (and their price of maize meal to consumers), for vulnerable groups and other commercial users (mostly as animal feed). Maize is, however, traded in small quantities by farmers (so called ‘farmer-to-farmer’ sales) and petty traders at informal and often hidden, markets. The GMB procurement price, which is uniform across the country, has increased in discrete steps, and has generally remained well below the parallel market retail price. Even though the rise in the current price of maize lags behind the dizzying general price inflation, prices in US dollar equivalent are keeping the upward trend due to the dismal harvest this year and rising prices in the international market. Further, rural labour markets are largely dysfunctional and inefficient due to imperfect information on going wage rates and labour surplus/deficit pockets especially in an escalating inflationary environment. High transport costs and physical separation of surplus areas (generally associated with the communal localities) and high demand areas (typically in large-scale commercial and A2 farming areas) have exacerbated supply problems. Zimbabwe’s economy has shrunk by about 45 percent between 1998 and 2007, with an annual inflation rate estimated at over 350 000 percent for March 2008, the highest worldwide. This has dramatically eroded people’s purchasing power, limiting their access to the meagre local food supplies Household food security analysis shows that about 2 million people in rural and urban areas are likely to be food insecure between July and September 2008, rising to 3.8 million people between October and December, peaking at about 5 million at the height of the hungry season between January and March 2009. The food insecure population would require food assistance amounting to some 395 000 tonnes of cereals in 2008/09. Additional foods such as oil, legumes and supplements would also be required to address the basic needs of most vulnerable groups. |